Turkey: A Look Back

July 16, 2016 § Leave a comment

After reading about the military effort to remove the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, I re-read my thoughts about Turkey posted on this blog five years ago.  It appears that the coup will not succeed.  I am conflicted.  I don’t like or trust military governments. But in Turkey’s history, the military has repeatedly acted to prevent the Turkish government from becoming a Muslim theocracy.  I think recent actions by Erdogan justify a real fear that he is heading in that direction.  How far he will go is uncertain, but I understand the military’s fear of that trend.  For me this is part of a widespread growth of religious bigotry and violent assault on secular government and culture.  In the past, Turkey has been an important opponent of that trend, but Erdogan has recently changed direction and, given the power and geographical position of Turkey, that is frightening for the same reasons that a Trump presidency is frightening:  He seems  willing, indeed enthusiastic,  to weaken secular democratic government and the human rights that protect political democracy, cultural diversity and protection of religious freedom.

Here is an essay I posted on this blog five years ago:

Turkey At A Crossroads {written 5 years ago} 

RePosted  July 16, 2016

Prologue

A few months ago a friend of mine urged me to read “The New Turkish Republic” by Graham Fuller.  I checked it out of the library, read it , and Turkey, a country that never before held any fascination for me, has been lurking in the recesses of my brain ever since.  I don’t expect that my friends, mostly political malcontents like me, share this interest.   So, I will understand if they don’t care to invest time in these thoughts.

The Crossroads

Geography makes Turkey a crossroads.  It lies at the Eastern end of the Mediterranean  Its Western edge borders the Dardanelles, the narrow water passage from the Sea of Marmara to the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.  North of that passage, also bordered by Turkey, is the Bosporus, the strait between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara.  In other words, Turkey controls a major means of maritime commerce for Russia and several former members of the USSR.

Turkey shares borders with Iran, Iraq, Russia, Bulgaria, Greece, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Syria.  It currently has an ongoing conflict with Greece over a slice of Cyprus, occupied by a substantial Turkic population that wants to secede from Greece and join Turkey.  It also has a bitter, and occasionally violent conflict with a group, the PKK,  from  the oil-rich Kurdish portion of Eastern Iraq, that wants to break off from Iraq and form a separate nation with the Kurdish minority population of Turkey.

The commercial and ethnic results of this geography, as well as the Turkic culture and language that Turkey shares with several nations in the Balkans, Asia Minor and Russia makes Turkey a crossroads.  Turkey’s recent history, especially its relationship with the industrialized nations of Europe and its pending application for membership in the EU, pose a set of choices that face Turkey with internal political conflicts that are, as yet, unresolved.  Thus, it seems to me that Turkey is at a metaphorical as well as a geographical crossroads.  The path it chooses will,, I think, have significant consequences for the United States and several other nations, both in Europe and in the Middle East.

Turkish Traditions and History

In 1950, David Reisman and two co-authors published a book entitled “The Lonely Crowd”.  Reisman, a lawyer, law school teacher and  sociologist, presented three classifications for categorizing people:  Tradition directed; inner directed and other directed.   Tradition directed people pattern their lives according to some external set of mores, such as religions, philosophies, military traditions.   Inner directed people craft their own,  individual,  set of values based on their experiences and informed judgments.  Other directed people are driven by their need for the approval of others.  They measure their own worth according to their acceptance by others.  [Sinclare Lewis savagely satirized this type in “Babbit”, a salesman whose goal in life was to be “well liked”.  Lewis’ novel was published in 1922.]

Reisman  felt that tradition directed people were handicapped because they could not easily adapt to changing technologies and environments.   He believed that a population of other directed people was unlikely to produce creative and innovative leaders and that a culture dominated by this type would be vulnerable to manipulation by economic interests with access to mass media technology.  He plainly favored the inner directed class.

Reading about Turkey reminded me of these ideas.  I don’t think current Turkish foreign policy and domestic political conflicts can be understood without some attention to the historic ebb and flow of tradition-directed culture, based on religion,  that has affected Turkish people for more than fifteen centuries.  To do so would be like trying to understand modern Texas culture and politics without some knowledge of the Alamo, the Civil War, World Wars I and II, the Vietnam war and the closing of the frontier near the beginning of the 20th Century.  Past events may not dictate the outcomes of current events but, like a movie’s  background music , they affect and give emotional tone to those events.  And, for tradition-directed people, that music is like Ravel’s Bolero.  Inner-directed people look forward.   Tradition-directed people look backward.  Those are significant differences.

I have identified five historic figures and events that seem to me related to the choices that confront present-day Turkey:  The reign of Constantine the Great;  the rise of the Ottoman Empire and the capture of Constantinople; the destruction of the Ottoman Empire at the close of World War I; the advent of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk; and the September 10, 2010, approval of several amendments to the Turkish constitution.

Constantine The Great

Flavius Valerius Constantinus was the illegitimate son of Constantius., a Roman military leader.   His mother was Helena, a barmaid and his father’s concubine. Constantinus received little formal education and became a soldier early in his life.  He fought in an army commanded by Galerius, a Roman general,  and, later, in an army led by his father.  In 306, when his father died in battle, the troops, fiercely loyal to both the father and the son, proclaimed Constantinus emperor.  He declined that title, but accepted the title of Caesar.

For reasons not pertinent to this story, a bitter rivalry developed between Constantinus and another Roman military leader, Maxentius.  This rivalry culminated in 312, at the  Battle of the Milvian Bridge  at Saxa Rubra (red rocks) located in Italy, nine miles from Rome.

The afternoon before the battle, Constantinus looked up at the sky and saw a flaming cross and the Greek words en toutoi nika (in this sign conquer).  He responded by ordering his troops to mark their shields with an X with a line curling around the top, a symbol of Christ.  He also marched his troops into the battle behind a standard featuring that  symbol.

Constantinus won the battle and, convinced that he had benefited from the alliance with Christ, he converted to Christianity.   He then, joined by Licinius, another Roman general,  issued the Edict of Milan, ordering the end of Christian persecution and  the restoration of all property confiscated from Christians.

During the next few years, conflict developed between Constantinus and Lucinus.  This ended with a series of military victories by Constantinus.  He became more and more committed to Christianity and finally asked all his countrymen to join him in that faith.  He moved the capitol of the Empire from Rome to Constantinople, assumed the title of Emperor Constantine the Great and effectively established Christianity as the official religion of the Roman Empire.

Constantine was responsible for another major development in the early history of Christianity.   A year after the Battle of the Milvian Bridge, a serious schism arose among Christian bishops.   Some argued that Christ was like God but not of God’s substance. Others were outraged at that idea because the “consubstantiality” of God and Christ was central to the theology of the church.  Constantine tried to settle the argument with a letter but that failed.  He then convened a council of bishops at Bithynian Nicaea.  318 bishops attended.  After long and contentious argument, a majority agreed to the “Nicaean Creed” which began “We believe in the Father Almighty, maker of all things . . . .” which, with some  later modification, is recited in Protestant church services throughout the world every Sunday.  Nineteen bishops dissented, but the majority prevailed and the schism ended.

These events, that affected most of Europe and Asia Minor, are part of Turkey’s history.  They are probably as well known to Turkish citizens as the American Revolution is familiar to Americans.  I assume knowledge of these events, in much greater detail than I have recorded here, is part of Turkish culture.

[As a sidebar:  There are some Christians who believe that Christianity, theretofore a radical movement, subversive of all governmental institutions, Jewish as well as Roman, was itself subverted and co-opted by Constantine’s governmental embrace, an unfortunate event from which it never recovered.  This view is not shared by the Roman Catholic Church, which regards Constantine as one of its greatest heroes, a circumstance which tends to confirm the opinion of the aforementioned Christians.]

The Advent of  Islam and the Ottoman Empire

Mohammed was born in 570.  He was a warrior prophet, fought in battles against rival Arab tribes and against Jews who challenged him or offended his followers,  suffered many wounds, dictated the Koran and founded Islam.  He was a student of both Judaism and Christianity, required his followers to honor both the Old and New Testaments and taught that Abraham, Moses and Jesus were prophets inspired by God.  He taught that he was another, and the last such prophet.  He taught, however, that there was only one God, Allah and he firmly rejected the notion that Christ was both man and God.

Mohammed died June 7, 632, at the age of 62.  He did not name a successor, an omission that has resulted in millions of deaths as Shia and Sunni Muslims pr ove their devotion to Islam by maiming and  killing each other.

After Constantine’s death, the Christian church split into a Greek empire centered in Constantinople and a Latin empire centered in Roma.

During the next eight centuries,these three competing religions, Islam, Latin Christianity  and Greek Christianity  fought over a vast territory stretching from Spain to Western Europe to Asia Minor and the Balkans.

The two Christian theocracies shared many core beliefs but they differed about the nature of Christ.  The papacy in Rome insisted that Christ was both God and man.  The emperor in Constantinople believed that Christ was divine but that his divinity came from God in the form of the Holy Spirit,  thus dodging the charge that Christianity was not monotheistic.  The Roman pope finally excommunicated the emperor in Constantinople.  That ended the negotiations.

The hostility between these two Christian sects intensified in 1204 when, during the 4th Crusade, on their way to confronting the Saracens at Jerusalem, the Crusaders attacked Constantinople and sacked the city.   The Latin forces occupied Constantinople for fifty years, until 1266, when the Byzantine Empire was allowed to resume control over some of its lost territory, including the city.    The strength of the Byzantine Empire was, however, waning and in  1453, Constantinople fell to Islam and the Ottoman Turks.

This Ottoman Empire had humble beginnings indeed.  In 1243, Mongols swept across Asia Minor and attacked Seljuk Turks in the Muslim Sultanate of Rum, located just East of the present Eastern boundary of Turkey.  The Seljuks were no match for the Mongols and the Sultanate fell apart.  A Turk named Othman and his family, who herded cattle for a living, owned a tiny plot of land near the west edge of the Bosperos that they managed to retain.   They were apparently a resourceful group because, after prevailing in some skirmishes with adjoining clans, they and successor members of their clan proceeded to expand their holdings and hegemony into an empire that included all of Turkey, the Balkans, most of the former Byzantine Empire and were finally stopped at the gates of Vienna and Paris, thus prevented from annexing Eastern Europe.  As  stated, in 1453, the Ottoman Turks conquered Constantinople and effectively ended the Byzantine Empire.

To summarize:  This war torn period of history,was driven by intense theological arguments.  It  featured the advent and violent expansion of Islam,  five Crusades, the conquest of Byzantium by the Ottoman Turks, as well as  internecine conflicts between warring Christian groups.   There were intermittent periods of mutual toleration but they did not last.   It is not clear whether greed, egos or true belief that conflict was required by devotion to ones faith impelled people to return to killing each other.  Sam Harris argues, in “The End of Faith”, that religion has become unacceptable because, in this time of nuclear weapons and other such horrific threats, religion is simply too prone to the incitement of violence and potentially planet-ending destruction.  He makes a strong case but he does not suggest any way to accomplish his goal of eradicating religion.  History does lend credence to his contention that religion more often leads to war than to peace.

Regardless of these issues, it is plain that Turkey was fully engaged in all of these events and it seems reasonable to assume that this history became a significant influence on Turkish culture.

The End of the Ottoman Empire

In December 1914, the Ottoman Empire made a bad bet.  It joined the “Central Powers” led by Germany as World War I began.  For several years before that, Germany had made substantial efforts to ally itself with the Ottomans as a means of establishing favorable trade relations with North African portions of the Empire as well as realizing the German dream of a “Berlin to Baghdad Railway”.   In addition, although I have not seen or read evidence to support this, I suspect that the French, Dutch and British colonial powers were generally hated or, at least distrusted,  in the part of the world occupied by the Ottomans.

Regardless of the reasons, the choice of entering the war on the side of Germany proved to be the death knell for the Ottoman Empire.  The Treaty of Sevres reduced the “Empire” to the area that comprises present-day Turkey.  In addition, Greece was granted some ill-defined rights to some territory around the Aegean Sea claimed by Turkey.

These claims of Greece led to a bitter war for two years between Greece and Turkey, a war won by a Turkish army led by Kemal Ataturk, a former Ottoman military officer.  The war began in 1919, lasted for two years and was finally ended in 1922.   The massacre of Greek civilians by Turkish troops  left scars of hostility that have out-lived the war.  The war did help launch the political career of Ataturk, who assumed leadership of an effort begun earlier by a group of  former Ottoman military men nick-named “The Young Turks”.

Kemal Ataturk

In the 1930’s, 40’s  and 50’s  a journalist named John Gunther served in Bob Woodward’s present role.   Like Woodward, John Gunther interviewed everyone of consequence and then wrote books about what he learned.  He wrote a series of  “Inside” books:   “Inside Europe”, “Inside Asia” and “Inside USA”.  He updated these books and sometimes re-wrote them as second editions.  In the 1938 edition of “Inside Europe” Gunther entitled a chapter about Ataturk “The Turkish Colossus”.  He began the chapter with this description of Ataturk”  “The blond, blue eyed combination of patriot and psychopath is the dictator of Turkey. . . .”  In the 1961 edition he added “ruthless” to his “psychopath” diagnosis.

Following his victory over the Greeks, Ataturk, with the support of a military group known as the “Young Turks”, became the absolute ruler of Turkey.   His administration was characterized by a degree of micro-managed control of the Turkish people that far surpassed anything that had occurred when the Sultans of the Ottoman Empire had ruled Turkey.

Ataturk’s goal was to destroy all vestiges of Muslim theocracy, including every personal habit and custom associated with Islam.  He, like Peter the Great in Russia, was determined to convert Turkey into a Western European style country.  [As I write this I am struck at how similar this notion is to the neo-con fantasy about Iraq as  a future Vermont situated in the Middle East.]  Ataturk was nothing if not thorough.  Here is Gunther’s description of post-Ataturk Turkey:  “He has abolished the fez, turned the mosques into granaries, Latinised the language.  He has ended polygamy, installed new legal codes, and experimented with a (paying) casino in the sultan’s palace.  He compulsorily disinfected  all the buildings in Istanbul, adopted the Gregorian calendar and metric system, and took the first census in Turkish history.  He cut political holidays down to three, demanded physical examination of those about to marry, and built a new capital, Ankara, in the Anatolian highlands, replacing proud Constantinople.  He limited most business activity to Turkish nationals and Turkish firms, abolished books of magic, and gave every Turk a new last name.  He emancipated women (more or less), tossed the priests into the discard, and superintended the writing of a new history of the world proving that Turkey is the source of all civilization.”

Ataturk died in 1938.  During his lifetime and continuing to the present time, the  zealous secularization of Turkey was backed and enforced by the Turkish army.   There are practical reasons for this.  Throughout this period of time, the West and, in particular, the United States was the source of superior military weapons and military training.   In order to use efficiently this technology and expertise,  changes in infrastructure were necessary.   Young men had to be educated in ways that equipped them with the skills necessary to use western armament.   An alphabet, language and a system of measurement different from those used in the West were obstacles to this efficiency.  Hostility toward western ways and culture, based on religious teachings was contrary to the desire of  military leaders to cooperate with and benefit from the technology and expertise available from the United States.

Under Ataturk’s leadership a system was put in place that empowered the judiciary to declare that a political party or leadership was inimical to the national policy of secularization and to order the abolition of the party.  As a result military coups were judicially   legitimized and courts came to be perceived as mere arms of the military, without accountability to the elected representatives in the parliament.

Criminal justice was swift and brutal under Ataturk.  John Gunther describes one incident following a 1926 botched attempt on Ataturk’s life.  After the would-be assassins and all others who were suspected of supporting the attempt had been arrested, Ataturk threw a champagne party at his lonely farm house located in a small village near Ankara.  When the guests returned home at dawn they found saw the corpses of the alleged plotters hanging in the town square.

One of the weirdest episodes during Ataturk’s administration occurred when he became curious about whether western-type democracy would work.   He ordered a group of men to form an opposition faction in parliament and to oppose the measures he proposed.  Understandably, the hapless group of faux opponents were reluctant to play their assigned roles.  The experiment did not work and Ataturk abandoned it.   Ataturk apparently lacked the imagination that inspired George Orwell’ s 1984, in which both “Big Brother” and the dreaded opposition were part of the same ruling authority.

The September 10, 2010 Constitutional Amendments

Led by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the Turkish people approved a series of amendments to the Turkish constitution on September 10, 2010.  These changes amount to a major reaction against the zealous secularization forced on Turkey by Kemal Ataturk.  They do not amount to a reversion to an Islamic theocracy.

The  amendments effectively ended the military domination of the elected agents of government and the use of the judiciary to empower that domination.  The secularization of Turkey mandated by Ataturk was enforced by the right of the military to intervene and abolish any political party or group that, in the opinion of the military, veered too close to Islam and the restoration of a country in which Muslims could practice their religion and abide by its customs without governmental interference.

Over a period of fifty or sixty years, this system led to repeated military coups that were legitimized by the judiciary.  Consequently, the courts came to be perceived as agents of the military rather than protectors of civilian rights.  The September amendments aimed directly at this issue and sought to free  the elected parliament and the judiciary from military supervision of the military.   I have not found an English language version of the amendments but Reuters has posted a summary of them written by a couple of staff reporters.  [ See http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68B28B2010091%5D  In addition to the reorganization of the judiciary, the amendments authorize the wearing of the head scarfs favored by devout Muslims.  The limits on military authority are topped of f with an authorization for the prosecution of the military personnel who engineered the coup of 1980 for the deaths and physical abuse of the Turks who opposed the coup.

As stated, I have not been able to find an English language text of the amendments, but I have read the constitution which they amended.  It was crafted by the military or agents acting at its direction.  It is 55 pages long and, so far as concerns limitations on executive power, guarantees of individual and political rights, and provision for what we understand to be “due process”,  it is a joke.  It is also a cynical joke.  It is replete with descriptions of rights, but every section that begins by granting a right closes with a proviso that the right can be suspended or denied if circumstances make the exercise of  the right inappropriate.   And those in charge of deciding whether the right is or is not denied or suspended are not independent judges with lifetime tenure.  They are agents of the executive branch of the government.

I have read several accounts and comments on the September 10 amendments.   The comments from Turkish commentators are either favorable, if they support limits on secularization and greater degrees of popular control of government; or unfavorable, if their judgment is based on fear that Islam is moving toward re-establishing control of Turkey and loyalty to the teachings of Kemal Ataturk.  There are two comments that I regard as both well informed and generally unbiased.   One is a blog by Max Fisher, a writer for Atlantic Magazine. [http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/09/when-islamism-is-liberal-democratic/62902/]   The other is an article in The Economist by an un-named staff writer.[ http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2010/09/turkeys_constitutional_referendum%5D

Both of these writers opine that the amendments represent a substantial move toward a more representative government and do not presage a return to Islamic theocracy.   They do hint that the adoption of the amendments probably means that Turkey will be more independent of influence by the United States, but not necessarily hostile.  This is not interpreted as a result of the amendments, but rather further confirmation of a trend that has been developing since at least 2003, when the Turkish parliament  refused to allow the US military to use Turkey as a launching pad for the invasion of Iraq.

It is encouraging to me that the citizens of  Turkey have, at last, moved away from an autocratic system that had them living inside a fence, guarded by military dogs to see that they remained docile and obedient to whatever the army thought was appropriate.  I am glad they have muzzled the dogs and started tearing down the fence.  If they want to wear fezes,  pray 5 times a day and believe that Allah is the only “true God”, that’s ok with me so long as they don’t go crazy about the Koran’s promise that every Muslim who dies while killing infidels goes to a hereafter populated by lusty virgins.  I assume that a pagan qualifies as an infidel, so I have a personal interest in that issue.

Concluding Thoughts

The part of this story that interested me was the extent to which Turkey has been a center of Reisman’s tradition-directed culture since at least the 4th century.  It seems obvious to me that the people who lived in Turkey for the past sixteen or seventeen hundred years have been either committed to Latin Christianity, Greek Christianity or Islam.  And that commitment has not been merely a matter of individual devotion to a set of religious principles, but has been woven into every aspect of their lives because their church was identical with their government.  They were not Christians who lived in Turkey, they were Christian Turks or Muslim Turks.  One history book I looked at claimed that when Christ’s divinity was an issue between the Greek church and the Roman church, the operators of Turkish baths in Constantinople could be heard arguing about it as they worked.

So, given this history, it made no sense to me that Kemal Ataturk could really change the brains of the Turks so that they would no longer  think of themselves as Muslims, shed their religion along with their fezes and become western men and women without religious commitment   Thomas Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutiions, describes how persistently scientists, professionally trained to look at reality without cultural bias and with impersonal detachment, cling to a theory long after it is demonstrated to be flawed or false; how they contrive ingenious modifications and alternatives to attach to the outmoded theory  to preserve its viability.  If scientists cannot be persuaded by proof, how much harder must it be for religiously committed people to abandon on command their religion, the source of their “inner direction”?

I think the recent history of Turkey, culminating in the adoption of the constitutional amendments, is proof that, while the threat of punishment or death may be able to stop people from openly practicing the source of their inner direction, it does not extinguish that source. Like an ember in a dying fire, it requires only an encouraging puff to reignite.

I  believe that Ataturk’s effort was successful only in a limited way.  He did succeed in ridding Turkey of a moribund and corrupt system of government that was obstructing progress.  That required brute force and boldness.  He had plenty of that.  He could count on the enthusiastic support of the army because the army wanted to be rid of the religious constraints imposed by an Islamic state.  I think it was inevitable, however, that a popular reaction would finally occur because he tried to uproot a tradition that was too old and embedded in too much history.

Because of the way American media presents Islam, it is counter intuitive for us to equate a national grant of more influence to Islam as a move toward popular democracy.  In the case of Turkey, however, I think it is true.  Ataturk’s secularization campaign was implemented in ways that were inimical to democracy.  It seems obvious to me that the reaction to that implementation was a move toward more democracy and popular control.  I have not read of Turkey’s abandonment of its effort to join the European Union although, at present, that effort seems to be stalled, not at the behest of Turkey but because of opposition from France.

It is possible that the more devout elements of Turkish Muslims will try to push Turkey toward more hostility toward the West and, in particular, the United States.  I am hopeful that the intelligence of Obama’s foreign policies will make that unlikely.  I dislike it, but the truth is that we are still a source for the most modern and technologically sophisticated arms available.  That, if nothing else, will probably enable us to maintain friendly relations with Turkey.

The most hopeful, and I think possible, outcome of the recent developments in Turkey will be realized if Turkey proves to be a willing and effective arbiter between the U.S. and other Muslim countries in the Middle East, especially Iran.  Turkey may actually become what the neo-con’s promised for Iraq:  a shining example of a democratic Muslim state.

 

Political Civility

May 25, 2016 § Leave a comment

Debbie Wassermann Schultz, Hillary’s acolyte-chairperson of the Democratic Party, has complained that Bernie Sanders’ disapproval of actual or threatened physical violence during the Nevada Democratic Convention was insufficient because he also expressed disapproval of the highhanded behavior of the chairperson of the convention who used her gavel to deny Sanders supporters a right to speak and participate meaningfully in the disagreement that dominated the convention.  Debbie complained that the Sanders supporters were not “civil”and used angry words and gestures to express their outrage.

Barbara Boxer, the California Senator who spoke at the convention as a representative of the Clinton campaign, claimed that she felt her “safety was threatened” because she was booed when she defended the way the convention was conducted.  She did not claim that she was touched by anyone or that anyone threatened to physically assault her.

I find these accusations of misconduct aimed at Bernie Sanders and his supporters absurd and comic.  Apparently Hillary’s supporters have not learned that, in the words of some legendary observer whose identity  has been buried in  the annals of political history, “politics ain’t beanbag“.

My first political convention was in San Antonio in 1952  In those days Texas was a “one-party state”.  That is, the republicans were so insignificant that all real political contests occurred in the primary elections in the summer.  The only important general election happened in presidential election years and, even then, the only significant contest was the presidential election.  No serious Republican candidates  participated in the general election.

The result of this circumstance was that Democratic conventions featured bitter conflicts between rightwing conservatives and liberals.

In 1952, Alan Shivers was governor.  Although he was from Jefferson County, where the oil workers union controlled local politics, he had abandoned his liberal roots and had become  a slavishly loyal puppet of the corporations who controlled Texas.  He used his position of governor to load the convention committees with conservatives and shut down any insurgency from the left.  The issue in the 1952 convention in San Antonio was “loyalty” to the Democratic Party.  We demanded that all delegates to the National Democratic Convention pledge to support the nominees of that convention in the 1952 general election.  Because the conservatives had no intention of voting for a Democrat in the general election, they hated the loyalty pledge like the devil hates holy water.

So, the liberals’ effort to force a vote on the loyalty issue was shut down at the convention.  Then Maury Maverick, a beloved icon of Texas liberalism, former mayor of San Antonio and formerly one of FDR’s favorite members of the House of Representatives, declared that the convention was no longer a legitimate representative body of Democrats.  He led us out of the convention hall to convene a “rump convention” at La Villita, a small historic Spanish village located in San Antonio.  It was raining,but we all marched to the new location, convened our own convention and selected delegates to the national convention.

At the national convention, Sam Rayburn, then Speaker of the House from Texas, and Lyndon Johnson, then majority leader of the Senate, also from Texas, sold us out, made a deal with Shivers and his delegation, and seated them instead of our “loyal” delegation.  Ike Eisenhower was the GOP nominee and Adlai Stevenson was the Democratic Party nominee.   Shivers and his group came back to Texas, disavowed their agreement and campaigned for Eisenhower.

Two years later, at another State Convention, the conflict between the “loyal Democrats” and the rightwing “Democrats” was replayed and, again, we lost.

Two years after that, in 1956, at the Democratic Convention in Dallas, three campaigns for governor by Ralph Yarborough had been used to create a strong real Democratic Party political organization.  Price Daniel had resigned his seat in the US Senate to return to Texas and run against Yarborough for governor.  The Dallas convention was a knock-down-drag-out old fashioned political scrap.  The lithographers union got one of the badges required to gain entry into the convention.  They used an early version of a Xerox machine to produce a few hundred counterfeit badges which we used to pack the convention hall.  The raucous demands for roll call votes just about shut down the convention.  We didn’t win everything but we did pay off LBJ who had promised Mrs.lloyd Bentsen a seat on the Democratic Party’s National Committee.  We blocked her and the convention selected Frankie Randolph, the godmother of Harris County liberal Democrats and mentor of Billie Carr, a legendary political organizer, to fill that National Committee seat.

Yarborough lost the governorship by about 3500 votes and, instead of proving that it was stollen, then ran for the Senate seat vacated by Daniel.  He was elected and became a useful and valuable Senator; the only southern Senator to vote “yea” when the 1964 Civil Rights bill was enacted.

These are just the highlights.  Each of the state conventions was preceded by hundreds of precinct and county conventions and many of them were disorderly, loud and definitely “not bean bag”.

This was my educational experience with convention politics.  I loved it and still believe it has much to offer as an alternative to the expensive and easily bought primary election system.

The above described conventions were followed by more organizing, led by governor races by Don Yarborough (no relation to Ralph).  In 1962, Don Yarborough lost a governor’s race to John Connally [or “Lyndon’s Boy John” as we called him] by about 25,00o votes.  In that election, the GOP had finally begun to organize its own party apparatus in Texas.  Strong plans were in place for a strong GOP primary election in 1964.  There is no doubt in my mind that, with the conservative opposition split between the GOP and the Democratic Party,  Don Yarborough would have become governor in 1964.

Unfortunately, in November 1963, JFK was  assassinated, John Connally was wounded and, thereby, became a hero.  The result was:  In 1964, with President Johnson’s backing,  he was a shoo-in for re-election and ten years of organizing went down the drain.

The liberals in Texas have never recovered.  Even when they had some success, e.g. the elections of Ann Richards and Mark White, those events were not accompanied by the kind of relentless organizing required to rebuild a Democratic Party political machine and regain control of Texas.

I believe we now have a chance.  But only if we have leaders who understand that political organizations are not merely temporary contraptions raise money and serve the egos of  political candidates.  The organization must be recognized as the dominant force and the candidates must agree to serve as implements of the organization, not the other way around.  We are now confronted with two candidates who exemplify the different kinds of candidates to which I refer.  The Clintons want organizations that will permit them to make the kind of deals they deem convenient to minimize the stress of maintaining themselves in office.  Sanders attracts and depends on followers who trust him to direct them toward the kind of policies not easily peddled “across the aisle”, but powerful incentives for attracting an electorate that will force a change in the location of the “aisle”.

 

The RDP: Some Afterthoughts

April 18, 2016 § 4 Comments

A few days ago I posted a proposal for a “Revolutionary Democratic Party”.  The reaction has been underwhelming but, because these musings are for my own enjoyment and I don’t imagine myself as a future Napoleon of the American Left, the muted reaction does not discourage me.  Drafting a plan for a political organization has, however, awakened braincells grown dusty and flabby from long disuse.

So, in response to the stirring of old embers, I have a little more encouragement to offer.

Some Basics

First, I omitted Rule One:  Never adjourn a meeting before setting the time and place for the next meeting.  Rule Two:  There is always something useful to be done, so never call a meeting without a proposal for some kind of action or a report of some ongoing activity in furtherance of the organization’s purpose.  This is challenging for a political organization because elections don’t occur every year so there are periods of time when there are no campaigns demanding energy and work.  That problem leads to the demise of many organizations because people won’t interrupt their lives to attend meetings that offer no purpose.

The Importance of Technology

I think this problem can be solved in several ways.  The  organization I envision should  train each member to use an iPhone, a iPad or a laptop as a revolutionary machine.  People skilled in ways of group communication should be recruited to serve as trainers at meetings.  There are computer programs capable of communicating to groups and setting up group communications on these computers.  There are internet sources of information that political activists need in order to recruit more members,  to communicate encouragement to political allies, express hostility toward political  opponents and organize public protests.  Group email lists or iMessage lists of some kind should be established so this information can be shared.

These activities can forge relationships and offer people a sense of becoming participants, not observers, in support of or opposition to political activities of which they approve or disapprove.

The evidence is all around us that this kind of technology can be a powerful organizational force.  If ISIS can recruit thousands of  young people to travel across the world to risk death, we should be able to persuade our fellow liberal Democrats to become active in changing the political landscape by investing a few hours of effort.  And, on a completely different note:  The Bernie Sanders campaign has demonstrated that a 74-year-old man leading an army of 18-30-year-old enthusiastic youngsters can mount a formidible political organization starting from scratch within less than nine months.  Their use of Twitter and other internet media weapons has more than matched the organizational performance of the Clinton/Obama political machine supported by hundreds of elected Democratic Party leaders and supporters.

I believe the present political contest within the Democratic Party proves that the power of  cheap computers and the internet pose the kind of threat to traditional political machines that the English bow-and-arrow posed to the armor-clad steed-mounted knights.  Not to take the analogy too far, the internet may be to the present power structure of the Democratic Party what Samuel Colt’s revolver, nicknamed “The Equalizer”, was to Western miscreants.

Youth and Experience – a Winning Combination

One important by-product of these efforts will be the involvement of young people.  That will happen because they routinely learn about this technology and the social organizational techniques it enables.   Bernie Sanders has demonstrated how potent and powerful the mix of young and old political activists can be.

The AA Model

Each group should spawn other leaders of other groups.  Each meeting should select a person to plan and preside over the next meeting.  The selection can be done by asking for volunteers.  After attending a few meetings, members should be encouraged to start other meetings in other neighborhoods.

The Local Elections Issue

Finally, there are two schools of thought about the following idea:  Should these organizations become involved in the election of candidates for local government agencies?  In the past, this was avoided because it was thought to be a source of division.  I think that was probably a mistake.  If local agencies are affecting the lives of those whom we are trying to influence, I think our organization should wade into the election of leaders of those agencies.  We should vet and interview the candidates and make decisions about which ones to support based on the degree to which the candidates conform their goals to those of our organization.  Those decisions should not, of course, be  based on whether the candidates are Democrat or Republican because most of the agencies’ elections are not based on those organizational divisions.

Conclusion

As you can see, if the organizational model I propose is followed, there will be no dearth of things to do between elections.  That is important .  I believe that one of the worst aspects of our political activities in the past has been to treat political organizations as temporary structures, dismantled at the end of campaigns.  That process enables elected officials to be unaccountable to the grass roots efforts to which they owe their success.  I believe political power should always flow up, not down.  Organizers should empower others, not themselves.

The Revolutionary Democratic Party

April 7, 2016 § 1 Comment

The Democratic Party’s Fear of Change

Last February, I expressed my despair in an essay that viewed Bernie Sanders’s heroic  effort to convert the Democratic Party into a relevant organization as foredoomed.  His continued successes during the past six weeks have re-kindled some of my excitement but I still regard his chances of becoming the nominee of the Democratic Party as unlikely.  The Democratic Party’s past struggles with Communists in the 30’s, Dixiecrats in the 40’s and “Reagan Democrats” in the 70’s have prompted it to insure against fundamental change by adopting procedural barriers designed to limit change.

As a result, it is virtually impossible to make radical changes within the Party in its present form.

Can Violent Revolution Succeed?

I have spent some time considering the nature of the people whose lives inspired me.  Leon Trotsky, Mao, Emiliano Zapata, Poncho Villa, Patrick Pearse, Che, Malcolm X – I read about these men and their violent lives.  They acted out my anger and thrilled me with their reckless courage.  The poetry and the music that celebrated their efforts as well as the Abraham Lincoln Brigade and SNICK – these were the sources of the emotional part of my life during several decades of unsuccessful efforts as a political organizer and a few individual episodes of private law practice.  The key word in that sentence is “unsuccessful”.  I never turned any of my dreams into reality.   Like Bernie Sanders, I was often counseled to be “more realistic” and “practical” but, somehow, that advice was never seductive for me.

I never actually met any of the men who inspired me.  I did meet a few people  who had been involved in some of the exciting history in America in the 30’s.  I knew and was enthralled by a woman who was involved in some of the Trotsky-inspired efforts of the Communist Party.   Like thousands of others, her heart was broken when Stalin signed the Non-Aggression Pact with Hitler’s Germany.   I had a long chat with a man who rode a boxcar into Seattle to join an IWW strike there.  I became friends with Magdaleno Dimas, whose participation in the Farmworkers’ Strike in Starr County changed him from a violent man with a criminal past to an idealist willing to sacrifice himself on behalf of the campesinos who were trying to improve their lot through collective nonviolence.  Magdalena’s life ended tragically after he was arrested and jailed in Torreon after trying to make a marijuana deal to raise money to finance the Starr County huelga.

The Lessons of My Past

As I look back over the decades of my life, I see that those who actually sparked changes that changed the lives of thousands of people suffering the injustices of capitalistic greed and thievery were nonviolent people whose lives, while they were not typical of the society in which they lived, were only lawless in ways that were designed to invoke moral outrage and never in ways intended to physically injure anyone:  Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King, Ralph Yarborough, e.g..

My Proposal

If Bernie Sanders is not the nominee of the Democratic Party this year, I think he should continue to organize and speak in support of a new organization within the Democratic Party.  Its name should proclaim its allegiance to the Party, but it should also identify it as a haven for people who yearn for and demand fundamental change in the Party and the United States of America.  It should focus on a statement of goals and principles, not on a hierarchical  organizational structure.  It should make full use of technology to build a web of like-minded people in the U.S..   The designers should study Alcoholics Anonymous as a model.  It should be built around colleges and universities, but it should use the energy found there to expand into diverse neighborhoods.  It should avoid any alliance with any religion.  Anyone willing to conform their efforts to those consistent with the statement of goals and principles should be empowered to create local “study groups” or “action pods”.  An appropriate name would be the Bumble Bee Group and local groups could be organized around “Hives” and “Cells”.

Each cell should meet once a week or once a month.   Dues should be $2, payable at each meeting.  A treasurer should open a bank account and keep $1 to finance the Cell expenses (literature or rent for a meeting place); and $1 should be sent to a national office.   The national office should be limited to a skeleton staff authorized only to maintain orderly books of account.  A newsletter should be created and circulated to all Cells.

Those financially able to do so should be encouraged to support these efforts, but their contributions should not entitle them to any authority to dictate policy or procedure.  Contributors should be entitled to choose whether or not to be identifiable.  Contributions would not be tax deductible.

Anonymity should be optional but members should be encouraged to establish a digital connection to the National Office and to other Cells and Hives in a city or county.  All communication should be by email or iMessage.  Hacking would become a constant threat and some kind of security and password protection would have to be designed.

These groups should become active participants in the governance and affairs of the Democratic Party and members should become candidates for precinct chair positions and executive committee positions.  Democratic Party candidates should be supported if their goals and principles conformed to those of the Hives and Cells.

Conclusion

I offer this as an alternative to allowing the organizing done by Bernie Sanders to be wasted and embalmed in the dustbins of the Democratic Party.  Bill Clinton hobbled the Democratic Party with his Democratic Leadership Council.  Bernie offers a way to respond with an organization to make the Democratic Party an agent for change, not a permanent role as the lesser of two evils.

 

 

The Political Chameleons

February 21, 2016 § 2 Comments

The Failure of a Revolution

It appears to me that, once again, the Clintons have succeeded in re-writing their histories to fit current political fashion.  Bernie Sanders’ defeats in Nevada and South Carolina probably ended his brave effort to convert the Democratic Party from an organization that tinkers with peripheral issues to one that forces a shift of power from corporate behemoths to citizens exercising political power.

If Hillary Clinton does not implode, we will have four more years without any significant effort to stop the rapidly developing transfer of wealth and income to a smaller and smaller group of multibillionaires.  The dire warning by Thomas Picketty will be ignored and the middle class will virtually disappear.

This is only the latest example of the Clintons’ skill and ability to divert attention away from what they have done in the past while promising dramatic changes in the future.  Here is a blow-by-blow description of this latest virtuoso Clinton performance.

The Overture

During the overture, before the laser light of a political campaign was focused, Hillary made a series of speeches to groups of Wall Street bankers, hedge fund managers and other leaders of the money manipulation industry.  She received over $600,000 for these speeches. Transcripts were made of each speech and, if she chose to do so, she could remove all suspicion about the promises made in those speeches by simply  making those transcripts public.

Various members of the press have requested that she release those transcripts.  She coyly responded that she would do so if “everyone else” released transcripts of their speeches – a demand so vague as to be meaningless.  Her opponent, Bernie Sanders, promptly agreed to release transcripts of all speeches made by him to similar audiences, an easy promise because he has not made speeches to Wall Street denizens.  When her first parry did not work, she has stonewalled.  Interviews with various attendees who heard the speeches have described them as “sounding like reports of fund managers”.  [This is not an exact quote, but it fairly describes the substance of those interviews.] For a very good description of her speeches from interviews with her listeners, see:  http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/clinton-speeches-218969

The Selective Revision of Hillary’s History

When she found herself confronted with an opponent with a spotlessly consistent record of opposition to racism, the Clinton team searched through Hillary’s past and produced several instances when she sided with civil rights advocates.  Just out of college, she worked with disadvantaged black children in the South.  After marrying Bill Clinton, she tried to establish a health care system.  When that failed, she was able to salvage a very meaningful and valuable program of government health care aid for children.  Having become a public figure as a result of Bill’s terms as governor of Arkansas and, later, as President of the United states, she and Bill were prominent in the Civil Rights movement led by Martin Luther King in the 60’s.

There are other chapters in her political past that do not fit her present narrative of a life-long advocate for civil rights.  Bill Clinton’s two term presidency featured his embrace of the Democratic Leadership Council, a Southern based political effort explicitly designed to shift the Democratic Party away from a liberal political force to one based on a “centrist” strategy.  That was accompanied by Bill’s speeches promising to “end welfare as we know it”.  It also featured a strong “law and order” program that resulted in increased mandatory minimum sentences and a dramatic expansion of the number of young black men behind bars.  During this effort, Hillary steadily supported Bill’s programs.

The details of this chapter of Hillary’s civil rights record has been recently published in The Nation.  Here is a link:  http://www.thenation.com/article/hillary-clinton-does-not-deserve-black-peoples-votes/

Conclusion

I realize this essay looks like sour grapes.  I will certainly vote for Hillary Clinton next Fall.  I, nevertheless, gag every time I hear her declaim herself as having “always” supported the rights of black citizens.  I also believe the media should not let her get away with hiding the transcripts of her Wall Street speeches.  We who will vote for her are entitled to know what she has promised to the most dangerous and destructive industry in America.

Rip Van Krugman

January 23, 2016 § Leave a comment

A Bad Day

Yesterday was a bad day for me.  My favorite columnist, Paul Krugman, posted a condescending essay claiming that our political system is incapable of fundamental change.  He sat me on his knee and gently but firmly told me to forget about any elected leader accomplishing any significant shift in the American power structure.  It was like, “No, Virginia, I’m sorry to tell you, but there is no Santa Claus.”  He didn’t go so far as to conclude by endorsing Hillary Clinton but his message was crystal:  If Bernie is elected, the result will be four years of deadlock without any meaningful improvement in the lives of working class Americans.  Here is a link to that doleful message: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/22/opinion/how-change-happens.html

Some Literary Antecedents

The political system described by Krugman resembles Oceania, the imaginary country created by George Orwell in 1984.  Just as mock political struggles occurred between the Inner Party, the Outer Party and The Brotherhood, all of whom were controlled by Big Brother,  Krugman claims that the “centrists” actually govern America while naive and misguided “extremists” at both ends of the political spectrum flail away in pointless delusional exercises.

Krugman’s gloomy scenario reminded me of what an old friend of mine, now long dead, once described to me as “an old Commie joke”:

“There once was a society of mice.  Once a year, they met and elected a leader for the ensuing year. They always elected a cat.  And, during the cat’s term, he gorged himself on mice without mercy or restraint.

So, the next year, when the mice met,  a spirited debate would occur.  A mouse would declaim, ‘Last year we elected a black cat and he proved to be a terrible mistake.  I propose that we never again elect a black cat.’  This was met with loud applause and the mice elected a white cat.  And, during that cat’s term, the result was the same:  Many mice were devoured without mercy.

This process continued, year after year.  Brindle cats, brown cats, Persian cats – they were all tried without any improvement.

Finally, during an annual meeting, a skinny, scrawny ugly cat in the back row, stood up and yelled, “I’m tired of this. Why don’t we elect a mouse?”  And all of the assembled mice rose in fury, turned on him and yelled, ‘Throw that Bolshevik out of here!'”

I have entitled this effort “Rip Van Krugman” because I believe his analysis is like Washington Irving’s story of the disgruntled New Yorker who fled from his unhappy home life and fell asleep on a  hillside.  There, with a musket rusting by his side, he slept through the Revolutionary War and awoke to find a world fundamentally changed.  I believe Krugman has lived through multiple revolutions, apparently without noticing them.

The LGBT Revolution

Prevailing attitudes toward gay, lesbian and trans-gender sexuality has fundamentally changed and that change has been reflected in the political and legal system of our country.

The Tea Party Revolution

In January 2009, as the Obama presidency began, Rick Santelli’s rant sparked a grass roots rightwing revolution that ultimately led to a government shutdown and drove the Speaker of the House of Representatives out of office.  Some say it has been “discredited”, but the rhetoric of Ted Cruz and Donald Trump seems hauntingly familiar to me.  It seems to me that the growth of income and wealth inequality during the last seven years, while it did not start then, was protected and nurtured by the rhetoric of the Tea Party.

The Civil Rights Revolution

The social and legal status of African Americans has fundamentally changed during the past fifty years.  Yes, there is still racism in America, but it has lost its political appeal.  Racial equality now is part of our legal system and no major political party brags about its Jim Crow credentials or segregation policies any more.

The New Deal

One of the most astonishing features of Krugman’s essay is his dismissive assessment of Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal.  He derides the establishment of Social Security because it failed to cover African Americans.  He dismisses FDR’s political dominance because it relied on racist southern political organizations.  In other words, he would rate the New Deal as nothing but incrementalism because it preceded the civil rights revolution.

I believe Rip Van Krugman does’t believe in political revolutions because he doesn’t recognize one when it happens.  The TVA, the Wagner Act, Glass Steagall, the WPA, the NRA – These political accomplishments changed the role of government in the electric power industry; changed the relationship between labor and management and directly led to the creation of the CIO; restructured the American banking system; established the propriety of government direct intervention to rescue businesses from the casino fluctuations of unregulated capitalism – maybe these changes were not “revolutions” but they surely made some permanent changes in the balance of power between government and private enterprise capitalism.  It’s true that the NRA did not survive an assault in the Supreme Court.  That does not change the fact that the people’s elected representatives adopted it and made it part of a political revolution in the 1930’s.

I have not mentioned the adoption of the Twenty First Amendment, ending Prohibition, which changed forever the relationship between criminal justice and society.

I know it is fashionable to say that the New Deal didn’t really change anything until WWII caused a massive injection of money into the economy.  That is true with respect to some aspects of wage rates and employment rates.  It, however, does not explain or detract from the importance of the above-listed measures.  They had nothing to do with WWII.

Conclusion

I don’t know who will be the opposing candidates for the presidency this year.  Contrary to Paul Krugman, however, I believe there is a good chance that we have reached the kind of “paradigm shift” described by Thomas Kuhn in “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”.  Free market capitalism has been tried for decades since Ronald Reagan launched it in 1981.  It has swept everything in its path like a political road grader.  Our unions are impotent; our taxation system is rigged; our international trade policies accommodate the interests of the wealthy at the expense of the working class; economic inequality has created a new “Gilded Age”; the insurance and pharmaseutical industries have free reign to make health care a luxury beyond the reach of a large segment of our population – by any measure the time is ripe for a radical change.

Instead of Rip Van Krugman’s gloomy forecast, I prefer FDR’s grito from his first inaugural address:  “First of all let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

We have halved the loaf so many times, there is nothing left except, as the Chicanos in South Texas say, “migajas de la mesa”.

 

 

The Winners’ Choice

January 19, 2016 § 2 Comments

The Endorsements

Democrats are faced with a choice:  Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.  [I do not believe Martin O’Malley has a chance to be the nominee.  I will ignore him in the following discussion.]  I have discovered a resource online I believe provides significant information relevant to that choice.  I urge my readers to review carefully the information posted there.  Here is a link:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Hillary_Clinton

This site consists of 10 or 15 pages of tightly packed lists of people who have formally endorsed Hillary Clinton.  They are separated into labeled categories:  Former Presidents (one listed); Governors and former Governors; Senators and Congressmen; State Legislators; Local Officials; Members of the DNC; Celebrities; Actors; Musicians; Writers; . . . .  On and on and on and on….

This is a list of the status quo winners in all categories.  It is indeed an impressive list.  It obviously is the result of a major recruitment effort.

After you have been suitably impressed by Hillary’s supporters, you might be interested in Bernie Sanders’ list of endorsements.  It is sparse and brief.  Here is a link:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Bernie_Sanders

My Reaction to The Endorsements

I believe this information is important because it suggests a basis for choosing between these two candidates.  It seems obvious to me that those who have been winners in our present system of distributing and exercising political, social  and economic power probably have limited enthusiasm for making fundamental changes in those arrangements.  The terms “incrementalism” and “tweaking” seem appropriate to describe the policies they will likely find comfortable and satisfying.  So, if you share those ideas of what the Democratic Party should seek for the next four or eight years, Hillary is your logical choice.  If elected, she will become the “Tweaker in Chief”.

If, instead, you are dissatisfied with the status quo and want some significant changes in the balance or power between the powerful and the powerless – some re-defining of the proper role of government as a shield and a weapon against the impoverishment of workers and the enrichment of the rentier class – then you might be less impressed by the winners’ choices and might choose a candidate whose history and rhetoric is less attractive to the present winners.  Bernie may be a little hazy about guns, but his intentions about the status quo are crystal.  And the difference between him and Obama is that he will spend all his energy mobilizing the grass roots behind his policies.  The campaign will never end for Bernie.  His vision is of a movement, not a campaign tent show to be dismantled the day after election day.

But What About Electability?

I was born at night, but not last night.  I suffered through the debacles of McGovern, Dukakis and Mondale.  I have plenty of past political deals and compromises of which I am not proud.   So I understand that some honorable liberals are thinking, “Sure, I like Bernie and he’s right, but I’m afraid he can’t win.  Half a loaf is better than none.”  I suggest that this is a situation in which, as the stock market disclaimer goes:
“Past performance is no guarantee of future success.”  So, here is my pitch:

The previous failures occurred when two  powerful political forces were active:

One, racism was rampant and powerful.  Remember the GOP’s “Southern Strategy”?

Two, Democratic Party candidates were anti-war when wars were politically powerful issues.  The “Communist Menace” and “Viet Nam”.  Remember?

Today neither of those dogs will hunt.  We have elected a black president and the demographics of America have changed and are changing.  It is no longer smart politics to “play the race card”.

The only war politically relevant now is the war against ISIS.  Obama has done a good job waging that war and the recent experience with GW’s war in Iraq has cured the public’s gullability about sending American troops to war.  Also, “trickle down” economic policy has been tried and proved to be a fairy tale.  The white people over 40 who have had the “American Dream” snatched from them will be hard to convince that rewarding the rich will be helping the “job creators”.

This may be the “tipping point” we have been waiting for and Bernie Sanders may be the “tipper” whose time has come.

But What About All Those Hillary Endorsers?

So far as concerns the Wall Street tycoons who have endorsed Hillary, Bernie will never get their support if he is the nominee.  Most of the rest of those Hillary supporters, however, will fall in line, led by Hillary and Bill Clinton and Barak Obama, to support Bernie for president.  And if the GOP is suicidal enough to nominate Trump or Cruz, Bernie will look like the epitome of rationality to both Democrats and independents.

Conclusion

Well, that’s my argument.   If I turn out to be right, it may prove the old East Texas saying that “Even a blind hog finds an acorn sometimes.”  My record for picking winners is abysmal but maybe this is my year.

 

 

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